Viewing entries tagged
Brexit

FTSE 100: The Wrong Measurement

Many economic "experts" are fixating on FTSE 100 as the primary indicator of the UK's economy. When the FTSE 100 is down, they panic. When it rebounds, they rejoice.

The fact is: they are looking in the wrong place. The FTSE 100 measures the hundred wealthiest companies - not the 100 most innovative ones. The new, innovative, largely undiscovered small startups will be the drivers of growth in the UK's new, innovative economy. Those businesses are not part of the FTSE 100; most are not publicly traded at all. They are small startups that will be the next large job creators.

The majority of new jobs in America come from small businesses. The same is true in the UK, and will become increasingly true as the UK's economy moves away from large crony capitalists and towards entrepreneurial startups. New jobs in the UK will come from innovative small businesses, not from businesses that have the ability to get special favors from EU regulators.

Some economists have suggested that the FTSE 250, which looks at the 250 wealthiest companies, is a better measure. It might be, but not by much. The companies that will make the UK's new, independent economy great might show up in the FTSE 10,000 (if it existed). But in reality, most of those companies are not even publicly traded.

Some of the FTSE 100 companies are not even UK companies, and are headquartered elsewhere in Europe. Some of the fluctuations in their stock prices simply reflect the fact that without the UK, the lazier economies in Europe will lose one of their biggest crutches. In other words, if their stock prices fall, that doesn't necessarily show a lack of faith in the UK; they show a lack of faith the socialist economies in the rest of Europe. Investors realize that without the UK shouldering a huge portion of the burden (1/6th of the EU economy), the EU won't last.

A government bailout or similar "stimulus" will certainly help the FTSE 100 companies - at the expense of the innovative entrepreneurs who could actually build the economy. It amounts to replacing EU special privileges for large businesses with UK special privileges for large businesses. It creates unsustainable, bailout-based jobs, instead of meaningful, lasting, productive jobs. That's a lateral move at best.

Instead, the UK should reject crony capitalism, eliminate regulations on small entrepreneurs, and reduce the taxes that stifle innovative small businesses. That means more innovation, better products and services, and more real jobs.

If the UK can disentangle itself from the EU crony capitalism and UK crony capitalism, and move towards a capitalist and innovative economy, it will soon see a massive resurgence in jobs and economic growth. This will be true economic growth, without crony capitalist strings attached.

In Liberty

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

America-exit

Over 200 years ago, a group of British citizens chose to leave the British empire. They were tired of having to follows laws and regulations set down by people that they didn't vote for. They were tired of having to pay for massive debt. They didn't want anyone to tell them who they could buy from or sell to.

At the time, the choice to leave the British Empire must have seemed risky. It was a far larger and more powerful organization than the current EU. Choosing sovereignty over being part of a massive economic empire must have seemed crazy.

But those Brits who became the founders of the most powerful economy on earth, knew that control over your own destiny matters. They knew that allowing others to make bad policy was a horrible idea, no matter how economically powerful they pretended to be.

A few days ago, we saw that 17 million Britons still have the will to be free and prosperous. And they will have a chance to do so...if they can truly follow the example of the renegades who founded America. If they can prioritize freedom over welfare, innovation over regulation, and self determination over obedience, we'll see a new bastion of economic growth and innovation across the Atlantic.

In Liberty,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Brexit: New Innovations Funded

In America, investing in weapons manufacturers makes sense. The U.S. government loves to bomb and invade countries, and that means they need to buy weapons. While investing in those companies is immoral, it is profitable.

What would happen if America improved its foreign policy? What would happen if the U.S. government stopped bombing hospitals and weddings and stopped occupying other countries?

Investors would pull their money out of weapons manufacturers. That would almost certainly hit the stock market hard, and lower the value of the dollar.

That's not because peace is bad for business. Peace and prosperity go together.

It's because those investors would need to find something else to invest in. Right now, they are just investing in the military-industrial complex. That's pretty easy to do, since those companies are big and obvious.

After a few weeks or months, they would find peaceful enterprises to invest in. They might invest in startups that were developing cures for rare diseases, or in new entertainment companies, rising education businesses, etc.

After all, less military spending means lower taxes. People would have more money to spend on food, entertainment, private education, medicine, electronics, computers, etc. New companies would be starting everywhere. Some would grow, create jobs and opportunities, and better products and services. We'd have a lot more Apples and Sonys, and a lot fewer Halliburtons.

Something similar is happening in the UK. Until last week, investors were just investing in crony capitalists. They were finding which companies had gotten unfair EU privileges, and the companies that benefited secondarily from those crony capitalists. That type of investing is not moral, but it certainly is profitable.

Now that type of investing is no longer profitable in the UK. Investors are pulling their money out of cronyist industries. That means stock prices go down. Investors are now looking for businesses that are better at innovation and useful productivity.

Investors will find them. England produced Newton, Adam Smith, and Dyson. Its people are innovative, resourceful, hard working, and intelligent. They will create great ideas and products...as long as they prevent the UK's own statism and crony capitalism from interfering.

It may take a few months, or even a few years, for the British economy to transition from a cronyist one to an innovative one. But once that transition is complete, if it is not forestalled by Britain's own socialism and statism, Britain will become a world leader in innovation and productivity.

In Liberty,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Brexit: New Investment Opportunities

Brexit's effects on stock markets don't mean what many think they do. In fact, the short term stock market hit is just a sign that investors are figuring out which new, innovative companies to invest in.

The price of a stock is based on two primary factors: risk and expected return. A highly volatile stock with an expected return of 10 percent will be in lower demand than a highly stable stock with an expected return of 10 percent. Thus, while many investors are pulling out, most of that is coming from uncertainty, not from a lack of expected growth.

Much of that uncertainty comes from this: investors don't know which companies to invest in. That's actually a good thing.

When Britain was part of the EU, it was easy for investors to know which companies to invest in. They just had to look at the big, politically influential companies. Those are the ones with growth opportunities, since those are the ones that can manipulate EU policy to get unfair advantages. Those companies are huge and easy to find.

Now everything is changed. The best companies are no longer the ones with the most EU influence. They are the ones who are the most innovative and productive. The problem: right now, investors have no idea who the hell those people are. Is it the small family owned business that no longer has to follow EU restrictions? Is it the teenager whose brilliant idea no longer requires EU approval? Is it the group of university students whose startup can go ahead without EU permission?

During the next four years, Britain has the opportunity to allow natural innovation cycles to take place. During this time, venture capitalists will be looking for the next great ideas from the nation that produced Adam Smith, Newton, and Dyson.

Stock markets will probably pick back up, as investors find the market entrepreneurs who innovate goods and services, and leave the political "entrepreneurs" who just find ways to get unfair government favors. Although, in frankness, the non-producers in the stock market matter far less than the productive individuals and businesses who generate products and services.

If Europeans are lucky, other nations will follow England's lead. Instead of a single, oppressive, overbearing, monolithic government, Europe could have 30 laboratories of innovation. And within each country, entrepreneurial innovation would be a lot easier.

In Liberty,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Free Trade

Free trade with a bunch of obligations and restrictions attached to it isn't free trade. It's trade with a bunch of obligations and restrictions.

Free trade simply means eliminating tariffs, trade quotas, and the like. A country can simply eliminate its own tariffs, and that presents a major step forward. That country can enjoy cheaper access to the tools of production, and thus become more productive.

As a simple example, Brazil and Argentina could eliminate their self destructive taxes on computers, and immediately allow their productivity to increase as more people have access to modern computers.

If you encourage other countries to also eliminate their tariffs, that helps free trade even more. But beware! Once you get into negotiations, you often end up adding a bunch of government wastefulness and burdensome obligations. Big corporations and big unions will demand special favors in exchange for supporting lower tariffs. Usually, those special favors end up costing almost exactly as much as the savings from lower tariffs. As an example, look at TPP.

The EU isn't free trade. With the EU, access to lower tariffs comes with major obligations and restrictions. There are the direct costs of the EU fees. There are the nearly guaranteed costs of bailouts (given that at least some of Europe's socialist economies are collapsing.) There are the welfare costs of having to support basically anyone who comes to your country.

There are the lost free trade opportunities with other countries. As part of the EU, Britain could not set up free trade agreements with other countries (e.g. the US). Free trade agreements had to be with the entire EU, or with no one at all.

Any divorce can be a little messy at first. But if you were married to 27 deadbeats, who felt that they had the right to barely work, retire at 40, and spend all of your money on their laziness...dropping that dead weight would help you out. And even if one of those 27 deadbeats (Germany) actually worked, you could still divorce the group and start a new relationship with any one of them individually.

Even better: you can now set up new relationships. You've learned not to share a bank account with people who lie about their finances and debts (Greece). You've seen that other people can get the same benefits without the burdens (Switzerland). You realized that the most successful people (U.S., China, Japan) weren't a part of your 28 person expensive marriage.

Britain is now free to pursue better opportunities. It no longer has the massive obligations of carrying around EU socialist deadbeats.

It may still fail. After all, Britain has its own wasteful welfare socialism to eliminate. But it will now succeed based on whether it embraces free market capitalism or welfare socialism, not based on whether other nations embrace free market capitalism or welfare socialism.

In Liberty,
Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Brexit: Breaking up the Cartel

Monopolies are bad for consumers, because they increase price, decrease quality, and reduce choice. Cartels do the same. When a group of businesses work together to reduce consumer choice, it hurts consumers by lowering quality, raising price, and restricting choice.

That's equally true for countries. A large number of small countries, all competing with each other, is great for individuals. Individuals (and businesses) can choose where to go, based on the regulation, taxes, etc. of the country.

The EU is functioning as a cartel. High, uniform regulations and massive fees apply to everyone in the EU. And businesses and entrepreneurs cannot simply go to a neighboring competing country, because that country has the same restrictions.

Brexit is the first step to breaking that cartel, and eventually creating more choice. As the EU breaks apart, countries will engage in regulatory competition. That means that they will compete to have better, more attractive laws to attract the most productive people.

A single European cartel is good for large, politically powerful businesses that seek to politically and unfairly control the marketplace. It is good for politically powerful unions, who increase costs and hamper productivity. But is is bad for everyone else. The rest of us benefit from regulatory competition.

When countries compete for productive citizens, all productive citizens win. It gives us better options and more choices.

Imagine if governments had to compete for productive citizens by lowering taxes and reducing regulations on entrepreneurs. There would be more jobs and a better quality of life. Brexit is the first step in that process. I encourage productive individuals in all other EU nations to push for referendums, and to vote to leave.

In Liberty,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Will America Leave NATO?

British citizens have decided that they will no longer subsidize the big government, socialist policies of other European countries.

Can America do the same?

Today, America provides much of the defense for its NATO "allies". Like the one A student in a group of dunces, America does most of the work in providing defense. Americans pay the most money for defense - more than the next several nations combined.

Because our money is used to provide everyone else's defense, other nations can use their citizen's money on other projects. European welfare, government pensions, government healthcare - all of that is subsidized by Americans.

But we can stop. We don't have to provide for the military defense of the whole world. Each nation is responsible for providing its own defense.

If America leaves NATO, that means Americans will no longer have to fund the military defense of NATO nations. Instead of paying for a military ten times as expensive as what we actually need, we could reduce military spending by 90%. We could massively reduce taxes - and actually become safer, since we would no longer be making enemies through military overreach.

As a nice side bonus, leaving NATO would partially defund European socialism. If European nations had to pay for their own defense, they would not have money for big government socialism.

We can, right now, shut down the vast majority of our foreign military bases, and bring the troops home. We can stop being involved in other countries' civil wars. We can become safer as we stop creating enemies abroad. And we can massively lower taxes, spurring economic growth and creating more American jobs.

The Cold War is over. We no longer need NATO. Let other countries pay for their own defense. It's time to leave.

In Liberty,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Brexit

What an historic day, as the UK decides to throw off the shackles of EU regulation, fees, and socialism. Britons will no longer have to pay for the incompetence, welfare, government pensions, and socialist policies of the rest of Europe.

Britain now has the opportunity to become a bastion of trade, innovation, and business growth. But that won't happen without work.

I ask my British friends, to first beware of cunning workarounds. The proponents of cronyism and socialism will now try the following. They will use economic scare tactics to try to browbeat you into accepting a new agreement...that will look the same as the old agreement. Fight that. While your economy transforms over the next months, there will be rocky times. That's what real economic growth, the kind that comes from productivity and innovation, looks like.

To those who will tell you that England is too small to stand on its own: nonsense. England has the opportunity to be a bastion of free market capitalism in a sea of socialism. What Hong Kong was to China, you can now be to Europe. Let the rest of Europe drown in its regulation, socialism, and unbridled laziness.

Any short term economic difficulty is just shedding a few crony capitalists and economic parasites. If you use this as an opportunity for freedom, innovation, and growth, you will be the great nation you can be.

Keep fighting for the next two years. I promise: this battle is not over. Cronyism and socialism will work hard to find a way to continue. Be fearless; reject any bad deals; and retake control of your own destiny.

Thank you for all the work you have done, and thank you for voting leave.

Respectfully,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Freedom and Innovation or Bureaucracy and Slow Growth?

To All My British Friends,

Do you want freedom and innovation? Or bureaucracy and slow growth?

Tomorrow you will chose complete independence, or continued stagnation. You can continue to be dragged down by the rest of Europe's financial incompetence, socialist wastefulness, and meddlesome regulations. Or you can become Europe's prime location for innovation, entrepreneurship, business growth, and new jobs.

The investors who are nervous? Let them be nervous. They don't understand how innovation and entrepreneurship works. They don't know that if the UK leaves, it will become a haven for businesses seeking freer markets and fewer restrictions (i.e., all businesses). They don't know that a Brexit means more entrepreneurship, more jobs, and more growth.

The old, scared investors don't know what entrepreneurship is, or what innovation is. To them, business is just about numbers on spreadsheets. They have never experienced pioneering innovations, brilliant ideas, and the creation of new industries. They aren't entrepreneurs and visionaries. At best, they are financial parasites. At worst, they are the toxic advisors that make you afraid of becoming as great as you can be.

They say Brexit is a risk. Obviously. Innovation and growth always involve risk. In Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, New York, and London, great innovators take risks every day. Those risks create opportunities, jobs, and even entire industries.

Old and frightened investors may pull away from the pound sterling. So what? That just means British exports will increase in the short term.

As for the threats of retaliation from France: first, those are empty threats. They would hurt other countries far more than they would affect you. Realistically, you can expect something like what Switzerland gets (all the benefits, but none of the restrictions).

But even if you get completely shut out: so what? Look at the fastest growing economies in the world. Look at the cities with the most innovation, or the countries with the fastest growth or largest economies. What do they all have in common? They are not part of the EU. As it turns out, no one in history has ever needed France's help to innovate, grow economically, and create jobs.

Tomorrow, please make the UK the haven for innovation and economic growth that it can be. Please vote to leave.

Respectfully,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair, Libertarian National Committee
Entrepreneur, Founder of Vohra Method