Viewing entries tagged
Pound

FTSE 100: The Wrong Measurement

Many economic "experts" are fixating on FTSE 100 as the primary indicator of the UK's economy. When the FTSE 100 is down, they panic. When it rebounds, they rejoice.

The fact is: they are looking in the wrong place. The FTSE 100 measures the hundred wealthiest companies - not the 100 most innovative ones. The new, innovative, largely undiscovered small startups will be the drivers of growth in the UK's new, innovative economy. Those businesses are not part of the FTSE 100; most are not publicly traded at all. They are small startups that will be the next large job creators.

The majority of new jobs in America come from small businesses. The same is true in the UK, and will become increasingly true as the UK's economy moves away from large crony capitalists and towards entrepreneurial startups. New jobs in the UK will come from innovative small businesses, not from businesses that have the ability to get special favors from EU regulators.

Some economists have suggested that the FTSE 250, which looks at the 250 wealthiest companies, is a better measure. It might be, but not by much. The companies that will make the UK's new, independent economy great might show up in the FTSE 10,000 (if it existed). But in reality, most of those companies are not even publicly traded.

Some of the FTSE 100 companies are not even UK companies, and are headquartered elsewhere in Europe. Some of the fluctuations in their stock prices simply reflect the fact that without the UK, the lazier economies in Europe will lose one of their biggest crutches. In other words, if their stock prices fall, that doesn't necessarily show a lack of faith in the UK; they show a lack of faith the socialist economies in the rest of Europe. Investors realize that without the UK shouldering a huge portion of the burden (1/6th of the EU economy), the EU won't last.

A government bailout or similar "stimulus" will certainly help the FTSE 100 companies - at the expense of the innovative entrepreneurs who could actually build the economy. It amounts to replacing EU special privileges for large businesses with UK special privileges for large businesses. It creates unsustainable, bailout-based jobs, instead of meaningful, lasting, productive jobs. That's a lateral move at best.

Instead, the UK should reject crony capitalism, eliminate regulations on small entrepreneurs, and reduce the taxes that stifle innovative small businesses. That means more innovation, better products and services, and more real jobs.

If the UK can disentangle itself from the EU crony capitalism and UK crony capitalism, and move towards a capitalist and innovative economy, it will soon see a massive resurgence in jobs and economic growth. This will be true economic growth, without crony capitalist strings attached.

In Liberty

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee

Brexit: The British Pound Will Be Fine

Fear mongers have said that the pound is "taking down the Euro." Nonsense.

Remember group projects in school, in which a few people would work together and everyone would get the same grade? You always wanted as many A students and as few D students as possible in your group.

The EU is like one of those groups. It had two A students: Britain and Germany. It also had 26 D students. Now one of those A students is leaving.

The pound is going down for a simple reason: investors are pulling out of crony capitalist companies whose primary value is special privileges from EU regulators. That lowers demand for those stocks, and thus lowers price.

Those investors have started looking for innovating and productive companies instead. In a few weeks or months they will find those companies. At that point, demand for those new stocks (and their prices) will rise.

But what about the euro? Why did the price of the Euro fall? If the pound falls, if anything, the Euro should go up. After all, the dollar and yen did, as people looked for temporary alternatives to the pound. If people believed in the EU, then nothing much would have changed in the euro.

The euro dropped because people don't want to invest in D student economies. A thousand fools don't make a wise man, and 27 D students don't make an A student. That's why the Euro has been steadily declining for years. Free trade is good; but welfare for lazy countries more than cancels out the gains from free trade.

Maybe Germany can carry the rest of Europe, keep bailing out Greece again, etc. Maybe it can't. Maybe it will also exit, and let the D student countries fend for themselves.

The fall in the pound is just temporary rearrangement. If Britain moves towards capitalism and away from welfare socialism, the demand for the pound will go right back up. But the euro?

It would require a massive movement away from current socialist policies and towards a massively freer market. No one would be happier than I if that happened in Europe. I would love to see modern Greece reach the work ethic and greatness of Ancient Greece; I would love to see a France that followed the effective economic policies of Bastiat. I would love an Italy as innovative, resourceful, and hard working as it was in the early Roman republic.

But I doubt that will happen until the EU finally goes the way of the USSR.

In Liberty,

Arvin Vohra
Vice Chair
Libertarian National Committee